I need to track down an 18 month forecast for the unemployment rate in the U.S. It should extend out to June of 2008.
Does anyone know where I can find one for free? I have found some, but they are only for 6 months and not what I am looking for.
Any guidance here is appreciated.
Economics - Unemployment...?unsecured loan
If you%26#039;re looking for %26quot;official%26quot; forecasts, I can%26#039;t imagine you%26#039;ll see one for longer than 6 months. However, there are a number of research centers throughout the country that do economic forecasts.
My favorite is this guy:
http://robinson.gsu.edu/efc/index.html
However, he only predicts by quarter, but hopefully this will help you out:
Q1 07 4.9
Q2 07 4.9
Q3 07 5.0
Q4 07 5.1
Q1 08 5.1
Q2 08 5.1
Q3 08 5.1
Q4 08 5.1
I realize this isn%26#039;t exactly what you%26#039;re looking for but hopefully this helps you out some.
Economics - Unemployment...?
loan
Of all the things to forecast, I can%26#039;t imagine a forecast of unemployment rates would be worth the paper they%26#039;re written on. If you could go back a year in a time machine, and provide economists back then with all of this year%26#039;s other economic data, they%26#039;d STILL all get a forecast of the unemployment rate wrong.
Probably the very best estimate you could do would be to predict a flatline continuation of the present rate (4.5%) -- that would be as good as anyone else%26#039;s.
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